Portugal is the most infected country in Europe.

Lagoa is the safest place in Europe.

Who are these people trying to rule our lifes with distorted statistics - quoted in 100,000's to make them seem worse ?

Portugal's mortality rate 10,000 of a population of 10,000,000 is 1.0 in every 1000 or 0.1%
U.K. " " 100,000 " 70,000,000 is 1.4 in every 1000 or 0.14%

Livelihoods are ruined. Depression is prevalent. Schools are closed. Economies decimated so that taxes will have to go sky high eventually.

Drug/mask/ventilator making millionaires are being created.

What sort of world have we descended into ?

Politicians guide us on like blind men - has nobody got a sensible guide dog to lead them in the right direction ? And don't even mention Brexit !!!

Everywhere in the World politicians and other supposed experts are making mistakes. The virus is a pandemic the likes of which hasn't been experienced before or certainly not in modern times with the amount of international travel and trade that takes place. Regardless of where you live in the World I am sure there are local decisions that you can criticise - some of these appear to have been taken for distorted priorities trying to balance health, economic and educational factors perhaps incorrectly.

As an island nation I, for one, do not understand why the UK did not totally shut its borders to everybody as soon as the size of the threat became clear. Even now with travel having been declared illegal truckers are the exception as they can arrive into the UK and distribute their load whereever. In days gone by freight would have been unloaded at the docks and then reloaded for onward distribution.

I can see tons of things that I think have been handled incorrectly and am totally fed up with how things are. I can't travel to our second home in Portugal, can't visit my family even though they live only a few miles away, and apart from hoping to get the vaccine soon I can't see much of a way out of the current situation.

We have to hope that politicans are doing the best they can and we have to comply with the rules that they introduce, whether we like them or not.

roy4eyes wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:47 pm Politicians guide us on like blind men - has nobody got a sensible guide dog to lead them in the right direction ?

To answer Roy's question: No - nobody has a guide dog because we have never been down this road before.

Statistics can of course be presented in different ways, depending on the viewpoint of the presenter.

Surely the real question is the unanswerable one - how many people would have died if lesser or no measures had been put in place? Only then could it be determined whether or not the economic and social costs of the measures taken are a price worth paying.

However, a crystal ball rather than a guide dog would be more useful in that context!

You are all correct in your assertions and statistics can and are used in different ways to support different arguments.

Roy you are using statistics to present the historical facts others use them to present the current (last 7 days) facts, you are all correct !

Trouble is it doesn't change anything. The hospitals are full, the medics exhausted and the vaccine in short supply, depressing eh ?

Has the recent cold weather been the perfect storm with Covid.
Are families being forced to congregate in single homes, rather than heating numerous properties, with diminishing income.

Roy, I feel your pain! The world has gone absolutely mad and at the heart if it is mass corruption, conflict and deceit. I am not denying Covid 19 has been a serious pandemic but the response of locking down in various guises implementing mask wearing social distancing etc has no evidence substantiating the effectiveness of any of it. Covid 19 is an infection that is serious for the frail elderly and anyone who has a low vitamin D status, heart disease and insulin resistance, ie blood sugar dysregulation/diabetes. In the U.K. the average age of a person dying with/off Covid is 82.4. Across Europe it is now hard to find anyone who has suffered with influenza this winter so there is something obviously wrong with how the stats are being compiled. If you are in sound health at any age, Covid is not likely to be a major threat whereas flu is far more dangerous for children and young adults. Roy, you talk of statistics being manipulated and that is happening every day and ‘gleefully’ reported by the main stream media and in particular the BBC. In the U.K. it was announced that there had been 100,000 Covid deaths. Again this is deceit in plain sight as the deaths are of ‘any cause’ within 28 days of a positive PCR test. I think that this is being extended to 60 days! Of course there are people who are dying as the primary cause being Covid but similarly many ‘end of life’ people are being admitted to hospital, get tested positive, die shortly afterwards and then they become a Covid statistic. That is deceitful and should be illegal in my view. I have read several accounts from heartbroken relatives who’s loved ones have been admitted with cancer or heart disease for example and being told they died of Covid 19. The other major fraudulent situation is the PCR test itself. It was never developed to be a diagnostic tool and indeed there isn’t a specific test for Covid. In the U.K. they have been using it for mass testing people and many thousands of ‘asymptomatic’ people are being told they have Covid 19. This is a huge subject in itself but the problem is that the swab taken from people has to amplified many thousands of times to be able to identify a viral fragment that the lab determines as Covid. The WHO has recently confirmed that a positive PCR test does not = Covid. They have said that a second test is required and a medical assessment to determine symptoms that can accurately identify as a live Covid infection. The PCR cycle threshold (amplification) number is key here. If the CT is between 20-30 and an infection is identified the likelihood is that it is a true positive. What is happening in the U.K. labs is that in order to arrive at a positive test they go to 45CT. The 45CT requires that the swab contents are amplified many, many, many thousands of times more than at 25CT. The likelihood of having a true positive at this level is around 3%! When you get your results the CT rate used is not divulged! The fear tactics being used are a disgrace and as long as we keep mass testing using PCR without medical intervention this ‘pandemic’ could go on forever. In reality, Covid 19 is now endemic and will, regardless of what we do, disappear in the Summer and reappear in the Autumn and winter. Many people are looking to the vaccine for salvation but I have huge concerns on how they have been developed within a very short space of time. Not only is that a concern, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are totally experimental. No one has ever used mRNA vaccines before. The at risk group are the frail elderly and it is true that this demographic would not have been included in the trials. Norway had 29 deaths following vaccination of elderly care home residents and advised that the frail elderly should not be vaccinated based on individual risk assessments. West German health authorities have also advised that the 65+ age group should not be vaccinated (AstraZeneca) because there was not enough trial data available for that age group. This is a farcical situation because the age group most at risk of Covid is most at risk from the vaccine. There is some good news that the Pharma backed governments will try to suppress is the availability of a safe drug called Ivermectin that is being used very successfully around the world to treat Covid 19. The early studies have shown a reduction in mortality of over 80%. This drug has been licensed since the 70’s and is an anti parasitic treatment. Dr Hill at Liverpool University is reviewing the worldwide studies at the moment. I urge people to read up on this drug as it could and should be a safer way to deal with the Covid threat but not profitable for Big Pharma of course! I can only hope I will be able to fly to Carvoeiro this Summer and dine again at Happys! Somehow, I doubt that will happen.

Thank you Paul for your full analysis of the situation. which raises questions.

Why ?
If ordinary mortals like you and I can see the hypocracy of the situation, why cannot the supposed intelligencia ?
Who profits out of the msery of billions of people ?
What has happened to good old influenza from which nobody now suffers ?
Who is the genius who convinced not just one or two governments, but the whole world, of the seriousness of this infection.

Nature always has an answer to problems - in this case overpopulation of the planet - bubonic plague in humans, BSE in cattle, myxamatosis in rabbits etc. so perhaps this is just another one which in the absence of wars will eliminate a small percentage of the population

For the record I am 80 and fully expect to die of something in the forseeable future

Well I have read Paul’s latest assessment of the pandemic and his previous missives on this forum last October.

Taken together these posts convince me that either my understanding of world events as reported by international media is totally wrong, or Paul is receiving different media.

Corruption, deceit, misrepresentation, political manipulation and restrictions totally disproportionate to the threat. I don’t recognise this interpretation of events.

Portugal is experiencing daily deaths on an unprecedented scale, hospitals in the north are full and the German military is advising Portuguese medics on emergency logistics.

Anyway we still live in a free world and everyone is entitled to express an opinion- regrettably under lockdown we probably have too much time on our hands to do just that !

Widge, I respect your views on this extraordinary situation and that is as it should be. The problem is that the main stream media and social network outlets are shutting down any views that are contrary to the ‘party line’. You are not allowed to have the view that vaccinations may not be safe, labelled ‘anti vaxxers’. I find this pretty extraordinary as the safety record of Big Pharma and particularly in relation to the history of vaccines is littered with injured and deceased people as a result of vaccines that did go through the trial period and were signed off. Pfizer are one of the most fined companies in the drugs industry for various malpractice charges including a record fine of over £2b. They conducted an illegal drugs trial in Africa and 12 children died. They were fined £50m.

To try and answer Roy’s question as to how we got here is a complicated scenario. When the virus was first identified in China in January 2020 I never thought that the whole world would be affected 2 months later. There has been no history and therefore evidence that lockdowns thwart the spread of a pandemic and that is how the statistics have supported. There have been many countries for example Peru that locked down severely and they have one of the highest mortality rates. Sweden followed the WHO guidelines on management and took a softer approach and their excess mortality figures for 2020 were not extraordinary for a pandemic year. Confining people indoors particularly in care homes creates the perfect environment to transfer the spread of the virus. The evidence on viral transmission with or without masks outside is very slim. It is certainly much safer outside than indoors. In the U.K. many are going into hospital and contracting Covid whilst in there. All that said when China and then Italy locked down hard last year, virtually the whole world followed suit. I can understand why they would do that as it would seem to be a good idea but history has not supported that. After the first lockdown and the mortality rates fell below the 5 year average it was clear that Covid was a seasonal virus. It will disappear in the Summer and reappear in the Winter regardless of what we do and how we behave.

The rationale for locking down has been to “save lives and protect the NHS”. The health services are under pressure this winter but that is not an unusual situation in the U.K. Back in 2018 the headlines were the same as now and then the pressure was caused by a flu epidemic. We cannot continually crash the economy and effectively ignore every other illness every time we hit a ‘crisis’. The government had the opportunity and the money to bolster the NHS so they could cope, instead they wasted millions on ‘dubious’ contracts for a failed track and trace system and mass testing. As Roy said there are many profiteering from these misguided policies. There should be an independent financial enquiry into how and to whom these contracts were awarded.

Another significant factor that is now driving the global approach is the fact that the government invested early on in development of several vaccines and they were then destined to ‘succeed’ at any cost. The driver for global vaccinations is the Gates foundation and they have funded the BBC, imperial College and indirectly the Sage group who advise the government on policy. There are officials in the government and Sage who have shares in Drugs companies and this is a clear conflict of interest. The vaccines were developed under the Emergency Use Act because it was deemed that there wasn’t a drug or drugs available that could treat Covid. That assumption is actually a lie because Ivermectin and the much maligned Hydroxychloroquine have been used successfully across the world. The news flow on these drugs is now re emerging since Trump was deposed.

What is very upsetting is that if you have an ‘anti lockdown’ view you are labelled as uncaring for the Covid losses. There should be an open debate on the big picture because the health impacts of unemployment, delayed tests for other illnesses, delayed operations and the fact that many people are now too frightened to seek help is catastrophic.

I am not sure how in Portugal, Covid deaths are being quantified but if it is the same as the U.K. there is without doubt a huge number of people that are being sadly mislabelled as Covid. I touched on this briefly earlier but the only statistic that is meaningful is the ‘all cause excess mortality’ for a given period compared to previous years. In the U.K. there has been a similar drop in cancer and heart disease deaths to the increase in number of deaths attributed to Covid. Statistics are being manipulated to suit the narrative.

I can recommend 2 resources well worth seeking out, Dr Malcolm Kendrick a GP in hospitals and care homes and Ivor Cummins an analyst/researcher. Dr Kendrick has written several pieces on the pandemic from the beginning to a recent one on lockdown policy. His insightfulness and logic is hard to find fault with. Ivor Cummins has many videos interviewing key people and also that present statistics and trends that are never shown on the good old Beeb!

I wish everyone well and a speedy return to the ‘old normal’.

PaulGoode wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:24 pm it was clear that Covid was a seasonal virus. It will disappear in the Summer and reappear in the Winter regardless of what we do and how we behave.

If that were true how do you explain the spread in the southern hemisphere when their seasons are the opposite?

Well Paul, you are certainly well read on the subject.

If you read your various lengthy posts carefully it appears that you occasionally contradict yourself, not surprising when so many assertions and theories are expounded !

Do you believe the world is in the grip of a pandemic ?

Portugal extended a nationwide lockdown until mid-February and announced curbs on international travel, as Prime Minister Antonio Costa accepted blame for the world’s worst coronavirus surge, with hospitals on the verge of being overrun. To try to curb the spread, Portuguese nationals will be banned from travelling to other countries by air, land or sea over the next 15 days and strict checks along the border with Spain will be put in place.

Assuming you do; If you don't support social distancing, facemarks, PCR testing, lockdowns or vaccination how should we prevent Corona virus spreading ?

Do you really believe that mortality rates in the last year are the same as last year 2019 ? Why have they increased when influenza has disappeared ?

Provisional figures between 3 January, 2019 and 1 January, 2021 point to 613,197 deaths in England and Wales, 14 percent above the previous five-year average (537,579). adding to the figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland, published in part, the overall figure for the UK is close to 697,000 deaths, with an excess of 91,000 deaths, equivalent to a 15 percent rise, the largest increase in a 12-month period since 1940.

The figures are still provisional because there is a delay between deaths and their registration, which may affect the figures at the end of December, but confirm a significant increase in excess mortality in 2020 that was only observed before in 1918, due to the pandemic of the "Spanish Flu", and then in 1940, shortly after the start of World War II. Excess mortality amounts to all deaths recorded in one year and compared the value with the average of the last five years, being considered the best indicator to assess the impact on mortality because it includes deaths that may have been an indirect consequence of the pandemic, such as lack of medical care or socio-economic problems.

Do you really believe that this is some sort of conspiracy and that Bill Gates and the pharmaceutical industry are profiteering whilst the world is on hold ?

Do you have any professional qualifications or work experience that lend credibility to your "radically alternative" observations ?

Questions raised with genuine interest and desire to acquire knowledge.

From today's Guardian

Portugal reports nearly half its total death toll in January
Portugal reported nearly half of its total coronavirus death toll during January, underlining the rapid worsening of the pandemic as officials blamed the UK variant and relaxation of restrictions over Christmas for the surge.

The country had largely been spared by the first waves of the virus.

In January, a total of 5,576 people died from the coronavirus, representing 44.7% of all 12,482 fatalities since the virus began spreading in the Iberian country in March 2020, data from health authority DGS reported by Reuters showed. Portugal has the world’s biggest seven-day rolling average of new daily cases per capita, according to ourworldindata.org.

Officials have blamed the huge rise in the case and fatality rates on the more virulent variant of the virus first detected in southeast England. They have also said an easing of restrictions on social contact over the Christmas holidays played a role.

Hospitals across the nation of just over 10 million are close to being overwhelmed, with ambulances sometimes waiting for hours due to a shortage of beds. Some health units are unable to find enough refrigerated space to preserve bodies, with Portugal’s largest hospital Santa Maria, installing extra cold containers to ease pressure on its morgue.

Not surprisingly, this subject polarises opinion! My views are not mainstream and to me that is not something to be concerned about. I have already said that I am anti lockdown and masks and truly believe that these mandates have not been effective in stemming the pandemic. The statistics show that regions, states and countries that locked down hard mandated masks outside have not fared well regarding mortality rates. Sweden did promote good hygiene practices, controlled large gatherings embarked on social distancing but never mandated masks and they have come through this comparatively well. There is no empirical evidence that locking people down and enforcing the use of masks prevent the spread of a virus. I have said this already but in March last year we were advised by the DCMO not to wear them. National lockdowns are not sustainable and to reiterate they have caused huge economic loss, job losses, a severe decline in mental health, child and elderly abuse is escalating and other illnesses and medical conditions are being largely ignored. The big picture is being ignored and that picture is massive. We cannot just have a debate on how to tackle Covid without discussing how we preserve the economy, jobs and the wider health situation.

I do not take it take lightly, the news that Portugal’s Covid deaths are escalating this winter. What has been a picture emerging across the world including within the U.K. is that countries, regions, provinces and even towns that fared better when the pandemic first impacted in March/April are now being hit much harder, unfortunately. Portugal fits this scenario. Covid is a seasonal virus and like every virus that has ever existed it propagates via infections then tails off when we reach ‘herd immunity’.

I do not see the Gates Foundation as a force for the good of the community. I hope the vaccines do prove effective and safe but the shortcuts taken during development and the fact that Pfizer and Moderna have used a totally experimental technology, mRNA, concerns me greatly. The Gates foundation does have a huge financial influence on governments and advisory bodies around the world and that may not be all good! There are drugs being used in many third world countries to treat Covid successfully that are safe and cheap but they were suppressed in the developed world last year when they could have been used to help save thousands of lives when vaccines weren’t around. In recent weeks Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine have gained publicity and trials are now being facilitated. If the motives were all for saving lives more could have been done, nothing to lose.

My views will get me the label a ‘conspiracy theorist’ but the actions of the last 10 months are not sustainable and have been incredibly damaging on so many levels. If I am right and Covid is a seasonal virus like flu we ‘have’ to learn to live with it. We cannot keep crashing the economy and forcing huge job losses with all that entails. There has to be a debate about how we care for the millions of people who are suffering as a result of the actions being pursued.

I wish everyone well.

My views will get me the label a ‘conspiracy theorist’ but the actions of the last 10 months are not sustainable and have been incredibly damaging on so many levels. If I am right and Covid is a seasonal virus like flu we ‘have’ to learn to live with it. We cannot keep crashing the economy and forcing huge job losses with all that entails. There has to be a debate about how we care for the millions of people who are suffering as a result of the actions being pursued.

I think not Paul.

I think you are just ahead of the curve. It is highly likely that Covid will become a seasonal virus once herd immunity is reached, until then, the controversial restrictions imposed upon us are, it seems, a necessary preventative measure.

PaulGoode wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:26 pm I can only hope I will be able to fly to Carvoeiro this Summer and dine again at Happys! Somehow, I doubt that will happen.

So given that you seem to dispute many of the published figures, have a problem with lockdowns, disagree with face masks and don't trust most of the vaccines that have been developed if you were Prime Minister how would you now deal with the situation going forward to enable us all to resume the free travel and movement that we used to enjoy? What positive steps should we all take?

It's very easy to dismiss and find fault in how things have been handled but to do so fairly you have to have a better way of doing things.

When Trump was being dismissive he suggested drinking disinfectant or something similar and look where it got him and his country.