Property market analysis

[sunman]

Why don't we try to be optimistic? No that would never do!

actually there are some real green shoots around,

my caveat here is that I'm not a Financial Advisor and I'm not making recommendations to anybody;

Banco Espirito Santo, a former high flying Portuguese Bank with significant loan positions out to all sorts of real estate developments saw their share price collapse from around €25 in 2000 to €0.52 (52 cents) in the past year or 2. Since last July they've doubled from 60 cents to over €1.20,

It might just be (excuse me Widge) some punters bottom picking but it might be that someone thinks their loan book is looking in much better shape.

IF there are signs of a property market recovery in Portugal these shares have a long way to run.

[widge]

Bottom Picking a potentially ambiguous phrase used by "City Types".

For the unfamiliar this might assist…………..The difficulty of picking a bottom stems from not knowing what actually is taking place in the market. Let’s be clear: Picking a low is not the same as picking a bottom. A low is simply the lowest price achieved by a market during a certain time period, while a bottom is a low or a series of lows that indicate investor mentality has shifted from selling to buying.

Excused sunman

[cereza]

Bottom picking is a common expression in many markets but in the financial area it is regarded as a highly dangerous operation as prices have a habit of dropping further and further in a long term depressed market which can badly affect people who get false optimism. ( "Dead cat bounce" is another favourite expression ! )
I'm all for being optimistic but I also want to be realistic.
Most of the overhang of unsold properties belongs to banks in the end and these banks don't want to show their actual losses especially with the upcoming EU tests of their solvency however they really need to start clearing out the old stock in order to rejuvenate the whole market.
It just seems crazy to me that after years of waiting for buying interest to reappear the first thing they do when it comes along is to increase prices which deflates the hopes of the potential buyer. They should sell a certain amount first to create a base and this would encourage more buyers and then prices would increase naturally as optimism grows.

[widge]

Bottom picking is a common expression in many markets but in the financial area it is regarded as a highly dangerous operation as prices have a habit of dropping further and further .

Demonstrably not" bottom picking" but "picking a low" as described above.

I agree with your views on the banks disposing of assets & blame the spineless auditors who allow them to hold assets on their balance sheets at unrealisable valuations to prop up profits & bankers bonuses.

[cereza]

You'll never hear "low picking" unless it concerns a moo t point

[Bruce Wallis]

Maybe things are starting to look up?
The property opposite us has just been sold, and to a British family.

[sunman]

more shoots

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101456676

[EMM]

In the last week I have been told of 3 properties which have been increased in price.
These are properties at the bottom end of the market and the increases were about 7%.
The reasons given by the owners was, we are getting enquiries and offers and we though the original price was too low to start with.!!!!
Is this another green shoot ??

[sam]

In the last week I have been told of 3 properties which have been increased in price.
These are properties at the bottom end of the market and the increases were about 7%.
The reasons given by the owners was, we are getting enquiries and offers and we though the original price was too low to start with.!!!!
Is this another green shoot ??

Or over optimism?

[widge]

Latest RICS Marketing Index shows confidence is rising but prices are still falling.

[EMM]

I know of at least 4 couples who have visited and bought in Carvoeiro in the last 3 months.
Last week I was told of two properties increased in price due to high levels of interest,
A friend who owns an agency has not been as busy since 2009.
There is alot of interest from cash buyers looking for bargains but there are not that many about which are in good condition,location etc.

[widge]

In the last week I have been sent details of price changes from Banks and developers,
They have increased their prices due to increasing interest and demand.
Does 1 swallow make a spring ???
Who knows.

Keep talking it up EMM

[EMM]

Facts are facts whether you agree or not.
If you want to be a half empty person thats OK with me.

[Rampage]

We had a Lagoa estate agent ring our door-bell about a week ago asking if we were planning to sell as she had clients interested in our area. Somebody is buying!

[widge]

We had the same thing in Sesmarias. Was it a young lady & did she also ask if there were other properties in the area for sale ?

I think she was also fishing for leads on who owns property for sale with competitor agencies with a view to expanding her portfolio.